Sunday, October 12, 2008

Great Year for the Big XII

What an amazing start for the Big XII. Going into week 7, an unprecedented 5 teams were unbeaten. Two of the five had to lose, but each contest was played literally until the final minute of the game, or OT for Texas Tech. The top ranked Sooners fell three places after a hard-fought match against the now-#1 Longhorns; Mizzou dropped out of the top 10 but their OK State opponent rose from #17 to #8. Tech remains at #7.

The teams account for four of the top five (six of top ten) scoring offenses. The Heisman watch is simply a cut and paste from the list of Big XII QB's (that list shouldn't change: Bradford threw 5 TD's, although Daniel dished out 3 picks...) Coaches Mark Mangino, Gary Pinkel, Mike Leach have been at their schools for 7, 8, and 9 years, respectively, with barely average records before breaking out into national prominence.

The B12 is the reason this college season is interesting to watch.

There are some negatives:

It's hard to win *every* week. The Longhorns' next three games are Mizzou, OK State, and Texas Tech. Holy shit. Oklahoma is going to make damn sure they don't lose again. The Cowboys and Red Raiders have to face the whole south half yet and I can't see one of these two fresh faces having the poise win out in such a bruising environment. Mizzou has the easiest path, but still a long road.

Clearly at this point in the season it looks like the BCS championship should be the B12 vs. SEC champs, but the caliber of the two conferences can easily become a curse. Unlike the reigning champs, a two-loss team won't make it all the way this year and a one-loss team better have a great showing in Kansas City on December 6. Will only one loss and a final convincing win be enough? USC blew off their own foot and have no chance at redemption with their pillow-fight remainder of a schedule, but weak-scheduled Penn State and BYU/Utah could win out with more of a claim to meet Alabama or Georgia than last year's Hawaii Warriors.

The BCS standings will begin next week and give a better idea of what one loss might do to a team with off-the-charts strength of schedule. On the other hand, maybe an 8-team playoff isn't such a bad proposition...

I have been vocal about the unquestioned dominance of the SEC, but I'm very happily having to reconsider. The biggest reason why the SEC still reigns is that even their weakest teams are formidable. The two 2-4 SEC teams got their scars from playing Florida, Georgia, LSU, Auburn, Georgia Tech, UCLA, and LA Tech, not a set including Iowa, UNLV, Arkansas State, Miami OH and Baylor.

Here's hoping the 'clones start to pull their own weight. On one hand, it's getting tougher to win as the conference becomes Heisman Central but hopefully playing in such a marquee conference helps Gene Chizik field some great recruits.

Friday, October 03, 2008

MLB Playoffs Log 10/2

ALDS Game 1: Rays 6, White Sox 4

Looks like there is a new team of destiny this year. In their first playoff game ever, the Rays looked experienced in their win over the Sox. Timely hitting and solid defense will make them tough to beat. And just hand over the Rookie of the Year trophy to Evan Longoria already. Home runs in his first two playoff at-bats? Crazy good.
Chicago had its chance, though. Down 6-3 in the seventh, they loaded the bases with one out only to watch Uribe and Cabrera strike out. Trotting out Mark Buehrle for Game 2 should bode better than Vasquez for Chicago. Buehrle has the playoff experience to get a win. It's also good to see Konerko having good at-bats. I expect this series to head to the South Side tied at 1-1.

NLDS Game 2: Phillies 5, Brewers 2

The Brew Crew has been leaning on Sabathia the past month and it looks like their last leg just gave out. Probably due to exhaustion (4 starts in a row on short rest), CC didn't have his usual stuff, pulling a Dempster by walking two to load the bases and giving Victorino a grand trot around the bases. The second that slider was torched over Braun's head, everyone knew this series may be over. When I predicted the Phillies winning in four, I was counting on the Milwaukee ace taking this hand. Now they're in big trouble and they had better find their big bats to start outslugging the Phils or they are headed to Milwaukee for a longer stay than anticipated.
I do think Dave Bush can outpitch Jamie Moyer, but he's gonna need some support. (Yes, I'm talking to you Prince "Hitless" Fielder.) Again, I think it's a different series if they could have marched Ben Sheets out there tonight and given CC two more days of rest. But that's the way it goes...

NLDS Game 2: Dodgers 10, Cubs 3

The Cubs just enjoy proving me wrong -- when I claim they will lose, they win and when I (rarely) argue they're in line for a win, they lose. Another NL Central team in a 0-2 hole. Noone saw Zambrano giving up seven runs or the Cubs defense playing that terrible. Watching guys like DeRosa and Lee scrambling around after the ball in the dirt reminded me of a Little League game. All four infielders committed an error! I'd be interested to see how many times that has happened in playoff history. It's almost comical that Piniella is playing Fukudome to have the "best defensive lineup", meanwhile in the batter's box he's 0 for 8 with four K's and five men left on base.
But don't get me wrong, the Dodgers look great. Billingley pitched strong and the front third of that linup was red-hot. With Manny on fire, LA will be tough for anyone to beat. We'll see how they fare against Harden on Saturday.

Thursday, October 02, 2008

MLB Playoffs Log 10/1

The MLB Playoffs *officially* started today and, even though my Cardinals were left out of the fray, I intend on watching as much baseball as I can the next few weeks. To get back into the blogging practice, I've decided to keep a playoff journal full of updates, predictions, and a humble opinion of what I see throughout October.

NLDS Game 1: Phillies 3, Brew Crew 1

Two words: Cole. Hamels. Eight innings pitched, two hits, nine K's, no runs. Hamels had a great season, surely good enough to sit on the fringe of Cy Young talk, but there was one stat that blew him out of contention: his win-loss record. However, it was a direct result of receiving terrible run support, and it looked like that may be the case again today...until the error. Maybe the play was harder than it looked, maybe it was jitters, maybe it was playing for a club that hadn't tasted October since four days after my birth. Irregardless, Mike Cameron misplayed a flyball that lead to all three of the Phillies unearned runs. Game over.
Alright Milwaukee fans, which do you want to hear first, the good news or the bad news?
The good news: Brad Lidge looked human. After not blowing a save all season long, it took Lidge 35 pitches to get through the ninth. Ryan Bruan struck for one run, then while waiting on second base he watched Prince Fielder take a wild swing at ball four to strike out; a Fielder walk in that situation changes the game. You'd have Hardy and Hart coming up with two on and one out and if Hardy still would have walked, it would have been bases loaded and the real pressure would have been on Lidge. Again, most likely playoff-rookie jitters, but if Fielder lays off that one pitch, we may have had a different outcome. Then again, maybe it's that one pitch that makes Brad Lidge that good.
The bad news: in my opinion, the story overshadowing Hamels' dominance is the news that Ben Sheets is out for the playoffs. That alone is what made Milwaukee so dangerous in a short series, they had the best 1-2 punch of anyone. Now you don't have Sheets, you lost the opener, and CC may only get one start. You heard it here first: the Brew Crew won't live to see a Game 5.

NLDS Game 1: Dodgers 7, Cubs 2

Don't worry, Cubs fans, it's just one game. Unlike the Brewers, I'm not ready to announce Chicago's demise. I have a feeling this series will go the distance and the Cubs will represent the NL Central in the NLCS. But that doesn't mean the North Side faithful shouldn't have any concerns. (Of which they do, considering how on edge the Wrigley crown appeared last night. The color men in the booth kept referring to the palpable uneasiness they sensed from the crowd, as if they are waiting for something bad/disappointing to happen. But how can you blame them?)
First of all, that James Loney grand slam wasn't a fluke, or at least not entirely. During the first four innings Ryan Dempster looked pretty good, but at times he struggled with his command. After the second walk he handed out in the fifth, I thought for sure they were going to pull him -- at that point he had already walked six batters and thrown 98 pitches. Yet he was left in to walk the next batter and then give up the home run. Dempster will rebound in his next start. It's Piniella's best impersonation of Dusty Baker that would have me concerned. In the playoffs, you have to know when to make pitching changes.
Secondly, this may be a glimpse of what's to come for Manny Ramirez. No doubt he's been hot since joining LA, but that power golf stroke to the bleachers in left field may be the beginning of a big post-season for Manny.
All in all, the Cubs aren't in a hole of which they can't dig out. Big Z will have a big game tonight against Chad Billingsley and get the win. Chicago has too good an offense to keep down. And this is coming from a Cardinals fan.

ALDS Game 1: Red Sox 4, Angels 1

I only watched two innings of this game, so I don't know much more than what I read in the box score. Looks like Jon Lester turned out a gem. Jacoby Ellsbury was a spark in the lead-off spot. Jason Bay is still doing his best Manny impression by providing the offense. Sportscenter highlights showed plenty of Boston defensive plays, which is surprising because they aren't usually known for their defense.
Looking at the hearts of the lineups, it looks like the Angels should have had the advantage: their 2-5 hitters went 8 for 15 (.533) while the BoSox 2-5 went 2 for 16 (.125). If this trend keeps up, the Angels will find success in this series.