2009 NBA Playoff Picks

The difference between good and great.

In order to win the NBA Finals you have to have all the pistons firing together as one unit. Chemistry is key, coaching is ever so important and you have to have that one player you know will score in crunch time when you HAVE to have a basket.

It’s funny – every year there is always one team in any kind of playoffs that just jumps out and surprises everyone. They just get on a roll and the train they’ve been conducting brings them all the way to the championship. Examples - 2008 New York Giants, 2007 Colorado Rockies and 2009 Michigan State Spartans.

But in the NBA you have to know who the contenders and pretenders are. You don’t just have one game to prove yourself, but a complete 7-game series, which allows for the average television viewer to analyze good coaching, changing defensive schemes and offenses that play together.

P.S. How much better did the Nuggets get after trading away I Shoot the Ball before I Pass Allen Iverson for I Pass the Ball before I Shoot Chauncey Billups?

Going into the Playoffs I had the Cavs and Lakers meeting in the Finals. One week later I thought for sure we would see the Bulls as that one team to surprise the nation and carry that firepower farther along. (Turns out they had Vinny Del Negro on their bench and the Celtics had something called experience on theirs).

What I am getting to is there are only certain teams that are truly good enough to win it all. Some are getting too old (Spurs and Pistons), others too young (Hawks and Bulls), while some are one player or coach away from taking the next big step (Blazers and Hornets).

Here are Five Key Points for a Championship Winning Team
1. You can’t win on jumpshots alone, you either need penetrators or at least someone who can play inside (goodbye Mavs, Bulls and Hawks)
2. On the other side of the ball you have to have a banger inside who can handle his own and get big rebounds in crunch time (like a Dennis Rodman in his prime).
3. You must have a coach on the sidelines who can teach DEFENSE and understands when not to call a time out (Phil Jackson) over those who take too many too early (Del Negro)
4. Bench Players have to step up and understand their roles (look at how big last year’s Celtics trio of Powe, Posey and House were for Boston’s championship)
5. When the game is tied and there is 30 seconds left then you have to have a player that has IT - when you get the ball there isn’t anybody out there that is going to stop you. Former champs Jordan, Wade and Duncan had it, and now Lebron and Kobe have IT. And IT is something that doesn’t come around but every once in a great while.

So which teams remaining in the playoffs have these five facets to WIN IT ALL do you ask?

The Lakers – Size (Pau Gasol), Defense and a player that can make all the shots in Kobe (I sexually assaulted a 19-yr old girl but got away with it) Bryant. Plus they have one of the best coaches in Phil I Don’t Take Timeouts Jackson and a plethora of role players such as Ariza, Walton, Bynum, Vujacic and Farmar.

The Rockets have a chance – with Yao I could have picked them over LA, but now after his injury they have as much of a chance to win as Jason Kidd does to dunk a basketball.

P.S. How much better are the Rockets without Tracy McGrady? Remember in Hoosiers when Coach Dale tells the team to pass the ball four times before they shoot? Well THIS Rockets team can do that. If T-Mac were to play he would be Ray from Hoosiers and maybe, just maybe Coach Rick Adelman would sit T-Mac to prove a point that he can play with four players on the floor, instead of five. What am I kidding, its the NBA…

The Denver Nuggets have one great player and all those others who understand their roles. Billups is the Butter to the Nuggets Bread, Nene and K-Mart handle down low and Melo is turning into a premier player in the league. Plus they have a smart coach in George Karl and many role players (Birdman, Anthony Carter, Kleiza, and Dahntay Jones)

Cavaliers – They have that one player with IT – Lebron James. And their team is not taking anything for granted right now. They know what it takes to win with defense and how to PLAY TOGETHER. They have role players in Varejao, Pavlovic, Gibson, Wallace, Wally World and Delonte (I Don’t Have Enough Tattoos) West.

The only problem is that they have yet to be tested strategically from a coaching standpoint and don’t have enough key veterans with playoff experience. They haven’t played a close game yet (won all by double digits) – so who is going to will them to the next level when it turns into crunch time and no one out there has been in a similar situation before.

Celtics – This is the one team that I truly can’t put a stamp on. They lost KG and Powe inside, yet Big Baby Davis is stepping up. My question is can Paul Pierce and Ray Allen carry their raggedy old bones to the next series after winning by the skin of their teeth against the Bulls? All I know is that Rajon Rondo has turned into a dominant point guard, Doc Rivers has been here before and they have more than anyone else has to play for – Defending as World Champs.

So from the words of Birdman who is going to be “popping champagne like we won the championship game,” come the end of June?

It comes down to these 4 teams (well 5 if Yao wasn’t hurt) and who has it to win it all.

A. The Lakers Have Everything
B. I would be scared of the Nuggets right now (if there was ever a team you wouldn’t want to face in a dark alley – it would be the Nuggets wouldn’t it?)
C. Everybody is jumping on the Cavaliers bandwagon just like last year’s exciting New Orleans Hornets. But do they have enough leadership to help them in the closing seconds of a tight game?
D. Celtics – They have the veterans, but boy wouldn’t it be better to see KG in a uniform on the floor than in a suit on the bench.

The Lakers supplant the Nuggets in 7 and Cavs take advantage of fresh legs against the Celtics in 6.

It’s a Kobe-Lebron laden Finals and for the first time since 2003 the Larry O’Brien Trophy will be coming back to Los Angeles. Why – because they have a better coach, the Bryant-James matchup is deadlock, and the Lakers have an inside game.

Now the real question is – will Phil Jackson pull a Pat Riley and guarantee everyone that they will win another one the next year?