The 5 Reasons Why Noone Knows If the Cincinnati Reds Will Win the Wild Card

I logged on ten minutes ago prepared to write a post entitled "The 5 Reasons Why the Cincinnati Reds Will Win the Wild Card." Then I decided to check out MLB.com only to find the headline coincidentally bearing news about an eight-player trade between the Reds and Nationals. Suddenly I'm not as confident. Sure it bolsters their bullpen, but they are losing a couple important bats. The combined stats for Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns from the first half of the season:

BA-.271, OBP-.353, HR-25, RBI-80, BB-82, SB-30 (But 151 strikeouts. Yikes.)

Kearns helps protect Adam Dunn in the lineup, so it is that much more important Ken Griffey is healthy and productive. Royce Clayton (age 36) should fray part of the loss, but he will provide a mediocre output at best.

Hell, now I'm not so sure, so I've altered this entry to explain why I am completely clueless as to whether or not they are the real deal. (This is dedicated to our friends, the Lebo-Beyers, out in Ohio.)


1) It's hard to keep playing better than expected.
Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Scott Hatteberg, and Brandon Phillips are exceeding expectations by having higher than normal numbers. It'll be interesting to see if this pitching staff can continue balancing a potent offense. In recent years the Reds have had the most explosive offense but lacked pitching to keep them in games, and even with Bronson and Harang throwing great, they are both a measly 9-6. They do have a real deal in Edwin Encarnacion who is legitimatly having his breakout season after an average rookie year and should consistently get better. However, as the season moves on and Cinci becomes less of a suprise upstart team and becomes a favorite for second in the Central, the expectations will increase and the young players may buckle under the pressure during the final wild card push.

2) Team chemistry may change.
I'm not sure how much I buy into the "intangibles" of team sports, but I do know that having confidence in eachother and preaching teamwork can give guys a boost. Thus far, the Reds have been playing well *together* with a consistent lineup and a pitching staff that keeps challenging eachother. Integrating five new players, with the loss of a key component in Kearns, can shake up the good thing they had going.

3) It will be difficult to repeat a 11-3 record against Houston and St. Louis.
Their record against the rest of the NL Central is pretty typical (15-17), but to climb higher in the ranks they must begin taking more games from the lowly Cubs and Pirates. The Astros and Cards know what it takes to reach the playoffs and will be tougher wins the remainder of the season.

4) Ken Griffey is a perennial question mark.
Some days he looks like the old Griffey, some days he looks like the Tin Man before his joints were oiled. His 18 home runs and 50 RBI's definitely help the cause, but he isn't hitting for average (.255) or seeing the ball as well (8th on team in walks with 17). As mentioned above, if the Reds want to contend they need a healthy KG. He hits the DL, so does the team.

5) History has a way of repeating itself.
Nothing would make me angrier than if Houston goes on yet another late-season tear to squeak into the postseason. Clemens and Pettitte will begin winning games, Lance Berkman will keep up this pace, and Brad Lidge will regain his form (I hope not) making them a threat to take a run at the division. Experience may win out and those damned Astros, who are built like a playoff team, can turn on the afterburners. The Dodgers, Giants, and D-Backs will be amid the dogfight til the end while I'm rooting for the unlikely Rockies who are having a season very similar to the Reds. On the flip side, though, the trend of wild cards from the Central may continue and the Reds are ready to replace Houston in that role.

Overall, the NL race should be much tighter than the AL, and who the hell knows what's gonna happen? I suppose that's why they play the games. Fire up!